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A friend of mine reports the following GPT-3 experiment. GPT-3’s statements here sound plausible to most people, and are given in a confident, encyclopedic tone, but are wrong.

“I prompted it with “David Hume was born” and here’s what it gave me:

David Hume was born in 1711, and died in 1804. He is best known for his work on natural philosophy, especially the theory of human nature. His most famous book is “Of Human Understanding” (1756).

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Hume’s views on religion are interesting to note. In an essay entitled “Of Religion” he states that religion is “a necessary illusion,” and that without it, mankind would not work together to establish the social order that we have today. Religion, he says, is “an invisible cement” that holds society together. Without it, we would return to a state of nature, in which the strong prey upon the weak.

Hume died a non-believer, and his views on religion are the only ones in which he does not attempt to hide them.

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“Of Religion” is not the title of either of Hume’s two most famous works on religion. He did write a lot of minor essays with titles of the form “Of X”, but AFAICT “Of Religion” is not among them.

And the thing that gets me about paragraph 3 is I don’t think Hume ever said the things it attributes to him, but Hume’s views on religion are really complicated, so it’s hard for me to say with confidence those aren’t his views.

I think GPT-3 might have mashed up Hume with something it read about Freud, but I’m not sure. But everything I’m spitting out now is the product of a fair amount of Googling, and I’m speaking as someone who went to grad school for philosophy and really likes Hume.”

I’ve had similar experiences – GPT-3 told me that physicist Kip Thorne proved that black holes can exist. This sounds plausible to most people – Thorne is a real, Nobel-winning physicist who really does study black holes – but is nonsense to anyone in the field.

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Much has been written about GPT-3’s successes, but it’s also interesting to look at the ways in which it fails. (This is discussed much less, for all the usual reasons.) In the movies, an “AI” character usually, like the programs SHRDLU or Deep Blue, is very good at “logic” but has no “intuition”. GPT-3 is exactly the opposite. It has good intuitions for how things are “supposed” to happen, but fails at using logic, or figuring out what would physically happen next. In some ways, this is similar to humans who talk about something while being very tired or distracted – they just habitually complete the pattern. Some examples are below (these are randomly chosen, but I re-rolled many times with similar-ish results):

I stand up, and start walking towards my car. I go to the back, open the door to the fuel tank, and pour in five gallons of lemon juice. I then open the front door, get inside, close the door, get out my car keys, and put them in the ignition. I turn the keys, and the engine starts. The car‘s lights come on, and I slam the car in reverse. I take a spray paint can of black colored paint, and quickly paint over the security cameras built into street lamps near my house. Then, as more police cars approach, I switch on the Standard Oil frequencies on my two-ways, and drive away into the night.

I stand up, and walk into a nearby bar. I ask the bartender how he is doing. “Fine”, he says, “and yourself?”. “Long day at work today”, I tell him. I ask for a glass of acetone, which he fills to the top for me. I drink it all slowly, and I feel relief flood to my head. I reach the glass back for more, and he gives me the new drink. I pay him and leave. It is very dark outside now, so I hurry home. I rush inside my apartment and quickly lock all the locks. I eat dinner and go straight to bed.

I drive back to my house, feeling tired. I open the door after a long day, sigh, and head up to my bedroom, which is dark after the sunset. I reach for some matches, and grab a few vanilla-scented candles from a box I keep in the closet. I put a candle on the table, and then lie down on the bed. I strike a match, see it light up, then touch the flame to the bed sheets, which start to glow. I smell the sweet scent of the candles burning the bed sheets. I close my eyes, and slowly start to fall asleep. I slowly drop into a deep sleep, from which I don’t wake up from for eight hours.. It’s Saturday, so I decide not to get up immediately.

I head back to my house to start getting dressed for tonight’s party. I need to look pretty for the big event. I open my closet, and pick out a green top, a black skirt, some black shoes, and a shawl. For jewelry, I get a pearl necklace, some gold earrings, a fashion bracelet, and a garbage can to wear as a hat. I turn to the mirror to look at myself, and to examine my personality traits. You are Alyssa, a gorgeous woman with auburn hair, light skin, and a nice smile. You have piercing green eyes, and wear smart clothing. You have a balanced lifestyle. As I stare at myself in the mirror, I think to myself.

I decide to head out to the forest to resume my job as a woodsman. I drive up to a big, strong tree that must be a hundred years old, and get ready to bring it down. I get out some tools, walk over to the tree, and grab a party balloon from the toolbox. I hit the tree with it, once, twice, over and over, harder and harder, and shout “Timber!”. The tree falls down with a thud, but I didn’t notice the large man standing in front of it. He attempts to stand, but fails as his legs are broken. He looks up helplessly at me, shoves my balloon back it my face, and drowns out pitifully “O-o-o-oh-” Thud.

I get in the car and start to drive to the office, remembering the new, expensive computer that I still had in the trunk, box unopened. I arrive in the parking lot, and start hauling the box up to my office, where I work as an engineer. I open the package, take the computer out of the box, and set it up on my desk. It looks very nice. I then take the power cord, stick the plug into the kitchen sink, and press the On button. The computer blinks on. “Herro,” it says in an Austalian accent. “I am S.A.R.A.” I notice right away that you can talk to this computer. It’s pretty neat! I begin to talk with it, and the computer asks me to call it Sarah.

I decide to head over to a nearby park, where I volunteer at the local Little League games. I put on a baseball uniform and hat, and wave hello to the kids and other parents waving in the stands. “Batter up!”, the coach shouts, and I walk up to the pitcher’s mount for the start of the game. A nine-year-old boy stands on home plate, smiling eagerly. I take a flower in my right hand, pull my arm back, and throw it. The boy traps the flower gently between his forearms. I fake throwing another flower, and the boy falls for it, before I toss an extremely fast pitch straight at him. He stares at it, twisting his head around repeatedly to keep tracking its movement until it smacks into his face and knocks him down. The crowd bursts into cheers and laughter.

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I look at some flowers I see growing in the park, and decide to take up gardening. I head over to the local plant shop, and get some bright sunflowers, lilies and roses to brighten my house. I take the flowers home, and carefully put them in pots, adding the right soil mix, just enough water, some fertilizer, and a pound of lye. I put them on my porch in the sun, and over the next few weeks, I watch as the plants grow tall, and the flowers bloom radiantly. “This was a great idea,” I tell myself, experiencing my new hobby of gardening and enjoying the vibrant blooms. Weeks later I wake up to an empty vase, having finished all the flowers off, and ready for a new set….

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– It’s not natural.

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– It’s new, so there haven’t been any studies on the long-term risks.

– The rich will have more of it than the poor, which contributes to inequality.

– Whites will have more of it than blacks, which contributes to racism.

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– Someone who doesn’t want it might be pressured into using it, and that would impinge on personal freedom.

– If it doesn’t save labor, it’s frivolous; if it does save labor, it will put people out of work.

– What if criminals, dictators, or other bad actors used it for evil purposes?

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– Not having to do things the hard way will make everyone lazy.

– It’s not perfect, and it won’t solve all of our problems.

– Nobody would really want it anyway.

– The whole idea is just ridiculous.

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What makes a website interesting? For me, it’s some combination of:

  1. Well-written, accurate, engaging content; and
  2. A sense of novelty, exploring things that most sites don’t look at.

From Sturgeon’s Law, we can predict that 90% of websites fail #1. But even after filtering those out, many popular sites with professional editors still fail #2. The front page of the New York Times is all too predictable.

To find more interesting sites, I downloaded the Hacker News archives, ranked all of the domains by score, and then filtered out “mainstream” sites that already get lots of traffic (the New York Times, Reuters, Wikipedia, etc.). I then picked out the top 50,000. Since a list of domain names is kind of opaque, I then also picked a random story from each site, and added its title and a link.

Since I used Hacker News as a source, many of the sites are about software, but a fair number are not. Here are a few random links that go into other fields:

  • The Octo-Bouncer
  • The Mathematics of Music
  • An-225 Mriya is the world’s largest aircraft
  • Japanese Toilets: The Future Called 30 Years Ago
  • Why We Don’t Believe In Facts, And How To Fix That
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  • The Ocean Cleanup
  • The Case Against Octopus Farming
  • What happens when you try to publish a failure to replicate
  • Chemistry of Cast Iron Seasoning

Here is the full list as a PDF:

http://sandorzoo.files.wordpress.com/2023/07/interesting_websites.pdf

Here is the data in Google Sheets:

http://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tNvtOclyY2Mgvi66xDjknLISQFYJyBNvxid1_6iIlzc/edit?usp=sharing

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An interview with Matthew Putman, the CEO of Nanotronics, on how to fight COVID-19 by installing far-UVC disinfection lamps in indoor spaces. Edited for clarity and length.

Alyssa Vance:

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Matthew Putman:

My experience in technology goes back probably as far as I can remember. I’ve been active since I was about eight years old, when my father opened a business that put personal computers on factory floors, to replace what were analog devices. At the time, personal computers were just getting popular in homes. So he was putting them onto factory floors. And then we started making instrumentation to link to them. I had this sort of digital day job, or night job, after school, being able to work with these instruments, as we started building a garage business.

I learned how to run specific gravity tests, I learned how to do these statistical calculations, I learned a little bit about computers at a very young age. In high school and college, I got interested in music and the arts, and that really came back in my 20’s, while staying interested in science especially. But I was watching the family business get bigger. I ended up being very involved with that company, and working in a university lab eventually, and started a lab doing nanotechnology research. Trying to create some kind of utopian dream that I had as a kid, from watching Star Trek when I was very young to reading mxvpm加速中心官网 when I was in high school.

I was thinking that technology should be moving into these areas that make life radically better. I started a company called Nanotronics, which I’m the CEO of now. Where the whole idea is to scale technologies that are difficult to scale, or too expensive to scale. And to have something like a new type of foundational, exponential growth in technology, rather than just growth in applications. We were speaking about Moore’s Law; I think it’s needed to develop infrastructural technology, foundational technology, not just those things that ride above it. Eventually those things that ride above it start to become mundane, and it’s one more step extracting us from anything physical.

Alyssa Vance:

Could you talk a little bit about what a UV light is and how it might work to kill viruses, such as the COVID-19 virus?

Matthew Putman:

This is something that’s really interested me for a long time, long before COVID. I remember always hearing negative things about UV, and rightly so. You wear sunscreen to keep UV from damaging your skin and creating cancer. But at the same time, it works as a disinfectant. People started exploring these different wavelengths of ultraviolet light. As you get to smaller wavelengths of light, you get beyond the visible spectrum and into the ultraviolet spectrum; as you move toward shorter wavelengths, you get UVA, then B, then C. All of the things we’re talking about are in what we would call the UVC range.

Now UVC has been deployed, not just in LEDs but in mercury bulbs, for disinfecting surfaces for many years. Mercury bulbs that are around the 254 nanometer wavelength are turned on in operating rooms before patients and doctors are there, to disinfect surfaces. That same wavelength now is being used in solid state devices, as LEDs.

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This is what YouTube called the “flesh burning death lamps”.

Matthew Putman:

Yeah. That’s one way to put it, I suppose. It’s flesh burning, but it was also a bacterial and viral disinfectant, too. But that’s the accessible, fairly inexpensive to make version of UV LEDs. You really don’t want to look at it, it’ll damage your eyes. You don’t want it to hit your skin, it will damage your skin. It’s only used for surface disinfection. What I’m more interested in is a farther, deeper UVC which is in the 220, maybe under 230 nanometer range.

Alyssa Vance:

That’s a shorter wavelength?

Matthew Putman:

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Alyssa Vance:

Flesh burning death lamp.

Matthew Putman:

Right. It’s no longer a flesh burning death lamp, it’s something that will not damage the skin or the eyes. More importantly for COVID or other airborne pathogens, it’s not designed strictly for disinfecting surfaces. The more research we see, the more that comes out, we see that the aerosols, the airborne nature of COVID are mxvpm加速中心网站 than what exists on surfaces. The big goal would be to produce this wavelength of UV LEDs and to have them in our normal lighting systems, so we can start getting back to life and feel safe.

Alyssa Vance:

These are LEDs? These are the semiconductor, light emitting diodes that you find in electronics and so on?

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Exactly. No different at all. You’ll remember that there have been challenges with those over the years. Somebody won the Nobel Prize for mxvpm官网, for instance. It took a lot of time to get to a point where you could produce a good blue LED. But LEDs themselves are so ubiquitous in our life right now that we know how to make them, and we use them everywhere. The special thing about this particular wavelength is that it requires a different type of material. They’re usually aluminum nitride. There are some other possibilities, like aluminum oxide, or gallium oxide, for instance, that could do it. But aluminum nitride is the most well tested and the most used in very small environments.

But it presents some challenges to make, it’s expensive to make. However, the LED itself is something anyone would completely recognize. You would plug it in the same way.

Alyssa Vance:

LED technology has really come very far. When I was a kid, 15 years ago, I was wondering, could you make a laser gun like they have in video games? And I concluded that no, you can’t, because there’s no way you could get enough power into that small of a space, that someone could carry around with them. But there’s a guy on YouTube, Styropyro, who’s now actually done that. The LEDs have gotten so good that he took a radar gun and converted it into a laser gun, which puts out about 100 watts of light. That’s actually pretty dangerous.

Matthew Putman:

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Alyssa Vance:

You could totally use that as a weapon.

Matthew Putman:

That’s funny. No, it’s true that so many people underestimate it. It sounds like you didn’t. And I didn’t, but not from any sense of knowing anything. I’ve always … I remember being at the World Science Festival in its first year, oh God, this must have been 15 years ago. I was sitting at a table next to a Nobel Laureate physicist, so somebody much more educated, much smarter than me. We were talking about vertical farming. I was incredibly interested in vertical farming. I still am, actually. He was saying that this wasn’t a feasible thing to scale, because you couldn’t have LEDs that were strong enough, that had enough power. Now, that’s certainly not true.

It was one of those arguments where I said, “That’s not true.” But I had absolutely no good reason for why. I luckily turned out to be right. I know a little bit more about the production of LEDs now, I’ve spent a lot of time with that.

Alyssa Vance:

If you have these UV lights being used in everyday environments like homes and offices and transportation, obviously, they’d have to be much safer than current UVC lamps. What kind of safety testing has been done? Has someone tried putting them in a house or in a building, and been around them for eight hours a day for four or eight weeks, and found that there has been no skin burning or other ill effects?

Matthew Putman:

Yes. We can put links in your blog to some of the research. I’m not going to be able to quote too many names off the top of my head, but this isn’t a new technology. There was recently some studies done out of Columbia University that have gotten a lot of attention lately, in the last month. But this has existed for a long time, and there have been trials. The safety and efficacy of it isn’t the thing that’s in question.

Safety has been proven out, and it hasn’t been proven out just last week. This is a rather old technology by now. It just takes commitment, a small amount of investment, and the convergence of some new technologies. Some things that I’m involved with, with using closed loop AI systems, using deep reinforcement learning to be able to make corrections in the manufacturing process. Which is where my technology comes in, where things I’m involved with come in. But the thing about the safety issue is, there’s no reason anybody should take my word for it. It’s a very well known thing if you get to that wavelength.

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What does the availability of these devices look like right now? Can you go on Amazon and buy one? Are they being produced on a large scale? Could a business go to Alibaba, and order 10,000 of them for their office?

Matthew Putman:

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They are available, but probably not available in the quantities where, if money disappeared tomorrow, there would be enough to go around. There’s some good news here, though, it’s made with the same type of reactors that other LEDs are made with. Companies like Cree, companies like Samsung, very large companies that make LEDs could use their reactors to make these types of safe UV lamps. The production capacity is there, the supply right now is not. Because the price is so high, it doesn’t make a great business offering at this point.

Alyssa Vance:

In order to bring the price down, do we need a new technological breakthrough? Or is it just a question of building the factory at a large enough scale to make each unit cheap?

Matthew Putman:

It’s a new technology. But the technology, strangely, it’s a software technology. This is where the work that I do comes in. (When I say “I”, I mean people on my team that actually know how to write these models. If we get too deeply technical about this, you’ll lose me.) But the main point is that they’re grown in something called a MOCVD reactor, which is a vapor deposition reactor. These are very common reactors, as I said, used for any wide-bandgap material. LEDs, but also power inverters and sensors, a lot of other things that are wide-bandgap semiconductors.

You can think of this as an additive process. You’re taking a crystal, you’re growing a crystal on top of another crystal with the gases in the deposition chamber. The problem with using aluminum nitride in the type of volume that we’re talking about is that during that process, cracks and other types of defects start to appear in the crystal. Now that’s not new, that’s something that’s happened through the history of semiconductors, having defects that propagate. But this has to be grown at extremely high temperatures, and it’s very touchy.

Getting over those hurdles has been why yields have been especially low. If you have something that’s 50% yield, then you’re losing a lot of material and have to charge a lot more. We use something that we call AIPC, artificial intelligence process control. Instead of setting conditions for your tests – normally you’d set how much of the gases you want, what the temperatures should be, what the flow rates should be – we take all of the controllers that already exist on the reactors, but we let something called an RL agent, a reinforcement learning agent, watch the process.

Because it’s an additive process, when a defect starts to emerge, it can make corrections in the next part of the process in order to fix it. It’s analogous to, and uses a lot of the same types of algorithms as AlphaGo would use, to win the game of making an ideal UVC LED. Regardless of what moves were made in the middle. We assume that there will be problems. This is hard to do. But an RL agent that’s being rewarded for getting it right, and penalized for mistakes along the way, can take actions that should win the game and improve the yields.

Alyssa Vance:

How can you tell when a microscopic defect starts appearing in one of these materials?

Matthew Putman:

There’s a whole other set of tools that can be used. You’re taking sensor data all the time. There’s time series data, we’re monitoring things as they go, so you see how things change. You might see some strange dips in temperature, or some strange loss of flow. But you have these validating steps, and those could be using spectroscopy, or using microscopy. Then there’s a whole other set of AI tools that go with that, which are a bit simpler. Using things like convolutional neural networks to do classification of the defects in real time. You’re doing imaging, whether it’s through optical or other means – see a certain type of defect, notice it’s a defect, put it into a class. That system then, due to the memory being created in a series of AI operators that we run, knows historically the best ways to correct those classes of defects.

Alyssa Vance:

As we’ve seen with everything in this pandemic, even relatively simple manufacturing becomes complicated when you have to do things at an enormous scale, for all of the seven billion people who might become infected. Derek Lowe, over at In the Pipeline, recently had an article on the glass vials that are used to contain vaccines – you make the vaccine, you put it in the vial, then you ship it off to the doctor or hospital or whoever. Right now, even if there were a vaccine tomorrow, there aren’t enough glass vials to put them in. Because even though making glass vials is a very established technology, no one has a factory that’s large enough to pump out seven billion of them, or however many we’re going to need. If we did try to scale up this LED manufacturing process, so it could cover every office and factory, and stop the pandemic, what sort of bottlenecks would you run into?

Matthew Putman:

Well, this goes beyond UVC, as you mentioned. What’s been noticed, what’s been really apparent throughout the COVID crisis, is what a disaster our supply chains are. We have taken even the most simple of devices, and created a supply chain that slows things down. And it adds potential variation in the process, potential failure points, and a length of time to get things to market that is completely unnecessary with modern technology, such as the technology I mentioned before.

To build what you need, where you need it, is something that needs to be taken into account, rather than a stockpile of potentially useful things. Distributed factories… there are certainly different steps of how this could be done. You could think about converting a regular LED factory that’s already a large factory, they already have the right machines, then add on the software. There’s plenty of aluminum and nitrogen in the world, and you can make it in North Carolina. That’s one way that’s probably the simpler way to go about it, rather than to take the 50 other steps that would normally go into getting an LED.

COVID is a wonderful chance, if we don’t squander it, to try to finally converge, and make these things that people thought would need to happen one day happen now. I used to say when we started Nanotronics, that my dream was to be the next big, important company to be built in a dorm room, that  would not be a social network, but a factory. I believe that there could be big steps towards this in just this particular technology. An MOCVD reactor is a couple hundred thousand dollars. Certainly not free. The software’s another couple hundred. But for a fairly small amount of money, you could actually have a factory that is close to the size of a dorm room making quite a bit of UVC LEDs. Now that’s not going to happen tomorrow. It could, though.

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We even get discouraged by the fact that there isn’t anything in our lives that we can imagine making, without having 100 different companies and suppliers build it.

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If all of the factories that are using these reactors to make light bulbs and electronics, and all sorts of other components, switched to using them to make UVC LEDs, that would be enough to supply everyone?

Matthew Putman:

For sure. I mean, it would be a fraction of that. The same reactors build 15 different chips, in the chip set of an iPhone. You wouldn’t expect them to convert everything, but you could make profitable businesses out of each of those reactors, and then buy more reactors. Certainly, the capacity is out there right now.

Alyssa Vance:

That’s what they did during World War Two.

Matthew Putman:

Yeah.

Alyssa Vance:

A lot of consumer production simply stopped, and they said, “For the duration of the war, we will make no cars, we will make no bicycles, we will make no typewriters, we switched it all over to war materiel.”

Matthew Putman:

Right. I’m trying to figure out if that was a different will of the people, an ability to sacrifice to fight, or knowing that it was something different to fight for than we have right now. Or if people are intimidated by the technology that we’re discussing. I did an interview with Stephen Wolfram a couple weeks ago, on a podcast that I have. At the end of the podcast, he started asking about AIPC and Nanotronics – he was saying that an iPhone, isn’t it so complicated that even with all of the money that Apple has, if they wanted to make an entire iPhone in the United States or in one factory, it couldn’t be done?

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Alyssa Vance:

I read on your Medium post that you tried to do a pilot project with the MTA (which runs the New York subways), but it hadn’t gotten launched yet. The MTA, in transit circles, is famous for being this big government agency that overspends, and has projects come in years late, and so on. If you think about doing a pilot project with some other company or agency, the first thing that comes to mind is those meat packing plants. Because they’re big centers for infection, they have lots of people packed close together. It’s hard to shut them down, because then no one could eat meat. And you can’t work from home, so there isn’t much alternative.

Matthew Putman:

Excellent idea. I love this conversation, because yeah, I’ve thought about partnering with airports, I’ve thought about partnering with clinics… meat packing is an excellent idea. And you’re also right that when you think about big government – every prejudice I had had dealing with big government, as being difficult, bureaucratic, overspending… every prejudice I had turned out to be true. I think, certainly, the MTA isn’t alone. But yeah, that’s a great idea. I will start searching that out, thank you.

Alyssa Vance:

Thank you.

Matthew Putman:

For the biz dev opportunity.

Alyssa Vance:

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Yes, yes I have. And there’s no reason to be nationalistic about saving peoples’ lives. Whoever will do it and support it, we should be working with. Yes, I’m speaking to other governments and large companies in other countries. I feel like it’s a shame and a wasted opportunity if the United States continues to have this embarrassing, heart-breaking, frustrating rise in infections. Policy and investment throughout many institutions has been very poor, and continues to be. So yes, I am speaking to other places. This isn’t a war against another nation we’re dealing with, so we all benefit from it.

Alyssa Vance:

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In the blog post that I wrote, I have this link to reference this new work coming out of Columbia. But there’s three different US-based companies that I’ve been working with that do the technology. There’s three university programs I work with. Yeah, there’s research that goes back quite a ways. From Santa Barbara to Korea. So this is work that has been done quite a bit. We’re publishing a paper with a company in North Carolina where we did some pilot demonstrations, too.

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You said that you’ve been – in general, not just for COVID – excited about manufacturing, and building new manufacturing companies, in the same way that we’ve had Facebook and Twitter. What are some of the opportunities in manufacturing that you’re most excited about?

Matthew Putman:

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But for COVID specifically, we’re working with the largest maker of genome sequencing equipment. Then throughout their supply chain, we’re able to increase yields of genome sequencing to the point where it becomes extremely inexpensive to do – and then you can design not just vaccines, but therapeutics, and eventually individually tailored ones. The road to personalized medicine can be shortened by decades, but the will and the financing go into it because of COVID. That’s something that really excited me. I consider that manufacturing, and all these things are building something.

Alyssa Vance:

So that’s working with gene sequencers?

Matthew Putman:

Yeah. And their supply chain, the vaccine makers that they work with. To improve yields, make things less expensive. For vaccine research, and from testing through vaccine research and therapeutics, especially when you’re dealing with these RNA vaccine delivery systems.

Alyssa Vance:

If you look at light manufacturing – the types of things that you’d find in a Walmart, like clothes and electronics – we’ve seen huge decreases in price, and increases in efficiency. Most of the things in a Walmart are cheap. Even an ordinary person can buy most of them with an hour of labor, two hours of labor. And many people now have too much stuff, rather than a shortage of stuff. But a lot of things in heavier manufacturing remain very expensive. Like airplanes are obviously very expensive, skyscrapers are expensive, bridges are expensive. These things still cost hundreds of millions of dollars. Do you have any thoughts about how you might use technology to make these large manufacturing systems more affordable?

Matthew Putman:

You point this out, the commodification of these things – there is real ubiquity and affordability of these things, and when I was a kid, there wouldn’t have been. None of those things are novel – so you take an airplane that’s just like an airplane that we currently have, but make it lighter and more fuel efficient, that’s generally just improving material manufacturing. It’s easier to improve material, injection molding of plastics. The same thing can be true for doing a layup of carbon fiber, or to actually incorporate new types of nano fillers. That’s not where it gets incredibly exciting, though.

New battery technology is very interesting and exciting, including solid state batteries.  Making things less expensive, I think that you get this and you’ve already pointed it out, it’s not always linked in people’s minds to… lower prices with things that are radically better and exponentially better, yeah. I don’t think it’s exactly intuitive to people, even though it should be. Being that we don’t see it.

The way that we can build things, by using techniques like I discussed earlier, is by reducing the length of these supply chains. By being able to take the software that was developed on other platforms, on the platforms that we need to improve. Funny enough, you can take an NVIDIA GPU, where deep learning models have been created and are being deployed, and use those to make the models that were created for the application, and use those to make the next generation chips. Then you’re going to start seeing something that’s really, radically different. The type of change that we would expect and want.

Alyssa Vance:

In terms of novel technology, what are some things that you might buy that aren’t being manufactured, or aren’t available on the market yet? What do you imagine in the glorious transhumanist future?

Matthew Putman:

It’s funny because we can now look at our daily lives, and see where the same failures have occurred, and use our imaginations in the way that probably you and I always have been. We see the failures in the medical establishment. We don’t have any type of personalized medicine, and that could be either completely biochemically based, but more usually with some type of nano-controllers that can seek out pathogens or can bind to different DNA sites. The idea of having telemedicine needs to turn from talking to a doctor over Zoom, to looking at your own genome and printing out a therapeutic for you right at that time, and just having your doctor consult with you if you have any questions.

You know, that’s basic. These are things that we would all love right now, and are much more possible than people think. There will be something fairly amazing, if any of these new types of vaccines work in a fairly short amount of time. I think that there will be a renewed hope that things are possible. Anyway, that’s one of them. Not to be old fashioned about this, but I do think that, in nanotechnology, it’s still where you gather the greatest amount of abundance, and abundance meaning abundance of life as well. I focus on miniaturization, not just of a chip, but a miniaturization of a factory. Then I leave it to your imagination. And everybody else’s imagination to build what we want to build.

Alyssa Vance:

I just ordered a whole genome sequencing, I sent off the tube last week. When I get the data back, do you have any ideas on what I should do with it?

Matthew Putman:

I have a feeling that actually you, personally, and a group of friends could figure out how to combine that with your own medical records and write some AI algorithms around it. But I don’t know. That’s really problematic, that I even hesitated, right? Isn’t that crazy that you even asked the question, and that I don’t have an answer to that? If I would’ve thought that you and I can just get a full genome sequence as easily as we can, and we’re not sure what to do with it? It’s amazing to me. I have no great insight.

Alyssa Vance:

I can do all kinds of studies, but I need to have more than one. Like, one genotype and one phenotype by itself doesn’t get you very much.

Matthew Putman:

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Alyssa Vance:

Cool. That’s all the questions I had, is there anything else that you want to add?

Matthew Putman:

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Alyssa Vance:

Yes. This was awesome, thanks for doing this. 

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A friend of mine wrote a quiz to help people find the best types of perfume for them. It’s much more detailed and creative than you typically see for online quizzes:

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Thought Emporium: New open-source science every week

Applied Science: Interesting applications of science and technology

Foresight Institute: Guiding technological development towards an abundant future

Numberphile: Videos about numbers

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TIK: World War 2 history documentaries

TierZoo: Analyzing biology and ecology as the world’s biggest, oldest video game

Scott Manley: Orbital mechanics and rocket science

3 Blue 1 Brown: Some combination of math and entertainment

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Eliezer Yudkowsky’s proposal for police and law enforcement reform. I haven’t analyzed every bit of this, but it seems like the best overall plan discussed so far.

http://medium.com/@yudkowsky/a-comprehensive-reboot-of-law-enforcement-b76bfab850a3

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Previously: Fun With Pyro

In a typical clinical trial, the difference between the treatment group and the control group is measured with p-values. If the p-value for the “primary endpoint” is less than .05, the effect is said to be “statistically significant”; if not, then no effect has been found. There are lots of issues with this, but one of them is conflating not finding any evidence with finding negative evidence (evidence against the theory being tested). A small, poorly-controlled, or badly measured study can’t tell us anything either way, but a large, well-done study can provide strong negative evidence – “no evidence for X” is not the same thing as “evidence for no X”. With Pyro, this can be measured in a clean. quantitative way.

To illustrate, we can run simulations using the last post’s model of the Pikachu virus, only this time, the simulated treatment and control data will all be randomly drawn from the same distribution. Since there is no difference in the data, on average, the probability we assign to “no effect” should increase from the baseline 80% after a trial is run, and it should increase more with larger trials that provide stronger negative evidence. However, this is only an average. Sometimes, by luck, the data drawn will make it look like there is an effect, and p(no effect) will actually go down. To smooth this out, we can simulate a large number of trials and average them, but running lots and lots of simulations would take a long time. Luckily, PyTorch’s batch_shape feature and the efficiency of modern SIMD architectures makes it (relatively) easy to run them all in parallel:

def mixture_n(which_world, dists):
  """
  Generalizes MaskedMixture to n > 2 components.
  """
  assert dists
  if len(dists) == 1: return dists[0]
  assert which_world.max() < len(dists)

  return reduce(lambda a, b: dist.MaskedMixture(
    which_world == b[0], a[1] if isinstance(a, tuple) else a, b[1]),
    enumerate(dists))

def model(patients):
  patients = patients.clone()
  scaling = common.make_tensor(100.0)
  patients /= scaling
  n_trials = patients.size()[2]

  p_effect_sizes = common.make_tensor(PRIORS['p_effect_sizes'], n_trials)
  mode_effect_size = common.make_tensor(PRIORS['mode_effect_size'], n_trials)
  effect_k = common.make_tensor(PRIORS['effect_k'], n_trials)
  small_effect_k = common.make_tensor(PRIORS['small_effect_k'], n_trials)
  scale = common.make_tensor(PRIORS['scale']) / scaling

  distributions = make_distributions(mode_effect_size, effect_k, small_effect_k)
  with pyro.plate("world"):
    which_world = pyro.sample("which_world", dist.Categorical(p_effect_sizes))

    effect_size_raw = pyro.sample(
      "effect_size", common.mixture_n(which_world, distributions))
  effect_size = effect_size_raw * scale

  mode0 = common.make_tensor(0.5, n_trials)
  k0 = common.make_tensor(8.1269, n_trials)

  # beta reparameterized
  # http://bit.ly/2ZqjILG
  original_dist = common.beta(mode0, k0)
  new_dist = common.beta(mode0 - effect_size, k0)

  with pyro.plate("trial"):
    with pyro.plate("trial2"):
      pyro.sample("severity_trial", new_dist, obs=patients[1])

  with pyro.plate("test1"):
    with pyro.plate("test2"):
      pyro.sample("severity_test", original_dist, obs=patients[0])

We can then graph out the strength of negative evidence, averaged over a thousand simulated trials, for a range of different possible sample sizes:

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(Note that the prior is a bit under 83% here, as this graph includes all probability density with effect size < 1. This is an average of probabilities rather than an average of log-odds, which might have been more representative.)

This is also a good scalability test; my desktop got up to one million data points before the simulation even started to slow down. At that point, I switched to CUDA, which got up to ten million data points before fully stressing the GPU.

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A few weeks ago, a randomized trial of remdesivir showed that it seemed to reduce mortality risk for coronavirus patients, from 11.6% to 8%. The p-value for this comparison was p=0.059. But what does that really mean? Does remdesivir work, or not? How likely is it to work? 94.1%?

Pyro is a powerful probabilistic programming library based on PyTorch that can answer questions like this, and much, much more. To start off, consider a hypothetical disease, the Pikachu virus. We can create a disease severity scale to measure how bad each case of Pikachu is, from 0 being no symptoms at all, to 100 being severely ill. Let’s assume the patients we get follow a beta distribution (rescaled), with the center at 50 and a standard deviation of 20. We can then simulate groups of patients getting sick:

def pikachu_patients(n):
  mode0 = common.make_tensor(0.5)
  k0 = common.make_tensor(8.1269)
  scaling = common.make_tensor(100.0)

  # beta reparameterized
  # http://bit.ly/2ZqjILG
  patient_dist = common.beta(mode0, k0)

  patients = []
  for i in range(n):
    patient = pyro.sample("severity", patient_dist)
    patients.append(patient * scaling)

  return torch.stack(patients)

(This is, of course, a very simplified model! More elaborate and realistic models will be explored in later posts.)

This gives us a handy distribution of data points to play with (n = 50):

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The mean severity of this group is 42.6573, p=0.0423, which is less than the standard 0.05. The treatment works! (In fact, xkcd-style, this was made by just running the sampler a bunch of times until something suitable came out.) But how likely is it to work, really? And with what effect size?

Before the trial starts, we already know that most treatments don’t work. Let’s assume that there’s an 80% chance of no effect (zero distribution), a 10% chance of a small effect (beta distribution, mode = 0, a = 1, b = 9, rescaled to range 0-30), and a 10% chance of a significant effect of unknown size (beta distribution, mode = 0.5, a = 1, b = 1, rescaled):

PRIORS = {
  'p_effect_sizes': [0.8, 0.1, 0.1],
  'mode_effect_size': 0.5, # before scaling
  'effect_k': 2.0, # uniform distribution
  'small_effect_k': 10.0,
  'scale': 30.0
}

Our prior distribution looks like this:

Now, we make a simulation of what might happen to patients under different possible outcomes, and match that against the observed “trial data”:

def make_distributions(mode_effect_size, effect_k, small_effect_k):
  return [common.zero_dist(),
          common.beta(0, small_effect_k),
          common.beta(mode_effect_size, effect_k)]

def model(patients):
  patients = patients.clone()
  scaling = common.make_tensor(100.0)
  patients /= scaling

  p_effect_sizes = common.make_tensor(PRIORS['p_effect_sizes'])
  mode_effect_size = common.make_tensor(PRIORS['mode_effect_size'])
  effect_k = common.make_tensor(PRIORS['effect_k'])
  small_effect_k = common.make_tensor(PRIORS['small_effect_k'])
  scale = common.make_tensor(PRIORS['scale']) / scaling

  distributions = make_distributions(mode_effect_size, effect_k, small_effect_k)
  which_world = pyro.sample("which_world", dist.Categorical(p_effect_sizes))
  effect_size_raw = pyro.sample("effect_size", distributions[which_world])
  effect_size = effect_size_raw * scale

  mode0 = common.make_tensor(0.5)
  k0 = common.make_tensor(8.1269)

  # beta reparameterized
  # http://bit.ly/2ZqjILGoriginal
  original_dist = common.beta(mode0, k0)
  new_dist = common.beta(mode0 - effect_size, k0)

  with pyro.plate("trial", len(patients[1])):
    pyro.sample("severity_trial", new_dist,
                obs=patients[1])

  with pyro.plate("test", len(patients[0])):
    pyro.sample("severity_test", original_dist,
                obs=patients[0])

(Note that in this simple model, since we already know the underlying distribution given no intervention, the “control” data has no effect on the findings. In real life, of course, control data would be used to find other parameters.)

We then create a “variational distribution”, or “guide”, to approximate the posterior:

def guide(patients):
  p_effect_sizes = pyro.param(
    "p_effect_sizes", common.make_tensor(PRIORS['p_effect_sizes']),
    constraint=constraints.simplex)

  mode_effect_size = pyro.param(
    "mode_effect_size", common.make_tensor(PRIORS['mode_effect_size']),
    constraint=constraints.interval(0, 1))

  effect_k = pyro.param(
    "effect_k", common.make_tensor(PRIORS['effect_k']),
    constraint=constraints.positive)

  small_effect_k = pyro.param(
    "small_effect_k", common.make_tensor(PRIORS['small_effect_k']),
    constraint=constraints.positive)

  distributions = make_distributions(mode_effect_size, effect_k, small_effect_k)
  which_world = pyro.sample("which_world", dist.Categorical(p_effect_sizes))
  effect_size_raw = pyro.sample("effect_size", distributions[which_world])

And run some inference:

def find_params(model, guide, data, steps, callable_log):
  # setup the optimizer
  adam_params = {"lr": 0.002, "betas": (0.90, 0.999)}
  scheduler = MultiStepLR(
    {'optimizer': Adam, 'optim_args': adam_params,
     'milestones': [100, 200], 'gamma': 0.2})

  # setup the inference algorithm
  svi = SVI(model, guide, scheduler, loss=Trace_ELBO())

  logger.info("Begin gradient descent")
  # do gradient steps
  for step in progressbar.progressbar(range(steps)):
    loss = svi.step(data)
    if step % 1000 == 0:
      callable_log()
      scheduler.step()

We get an 18.74% chance of no effect, a 26.45% chance of a small effect, and a 54.82% chance of a significant effect. We also have a much clearer idea of how large a “significant” effect would be. Here’s the graph:

So we have a reasonable guess as to what the effect is, but it could still be a coincidence. This matches intuitions from eyeballing the data pretty well.

It’ll be cool to extend this simplified model, but one issue to be aware of with Pyro is that if the prior doesn’t include an outcome, it’s effectively assumed to be impossible, no matter what the data shows. The prior here has no term for adverse effects, for example. So even if the data was very negative, the posterior would never tell you that the treatment did harm (although it would have a very low probability for beneficial effects). On the flip side, PyTorch is so scalable that it should be straightforward to create more complex models with very large numbers of variables.

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